Trans-Pacific belly capacity recovery is underway but far from pre-pandemic levels

We started seeing an important recovery in 2021 as large aviation markets in North America and Europe reopened international travel following easing quarantine restrictions. However, the Asia-Pacific region saw little improvement in restoring international capacity as their governments were more cautious about opening borders. Vaccination rates in the region are lower and new variants have offset the small gains in domestic markets like Japan and Vietnam. Hong Kong is an example of how the lack of international flights has impacted the local industry. Last month, Cathay Pacific suspended all long-haul freighter and passenger freighter flights for more than two weeks after Hong Kong extended the quarantine period for crews arriving from international destinations. This decision put more pressure on an airline that is already suffering heavily from the lack of international travel, and it also meant a significant loss of cargo space for shippers that are already facing limited cargo availability. With passenger capacity down by 90%, Cathay is one of the major combination carriers in Asia that has seen strong cargo demand but its passenger network has limited access to cargo. Cargo Facts Consulting has analyzed the Trans-Pacific cargo belly capacity market in detail. The interactive display contains four pages with a panel in each: Belly Capacity Historical Development Belly Capacity by Country Pair Belly Capacity by Aircraft Type Belly Capacity by Carrier

Data is current as of January 21, 2022, and includes all scheduled services through October 2022 and historical data for 2019, 2020 and 2021. All displays contain data for the North Pacific segment which includes the United States, Canada, Mexico, Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, India, Hong Kong, Vietnam and the Philippines. Some takeaways from our analysis: The North America-Asia passenger market is recovering slowly and does not match the recovery rates observed in the Trans-Atlantic lane as Asian carriers are not able to add passenger capacity to key international hubs due to the strict government restrictions and lockdowns. Belly capacity in the region was recovering fast in the second quarter of 2021, but the delta variant slowed down this growth. The 2022 scheduled passenger capacity is moderate, resulting in a flat trend for belly capacity through the end of summer. Travel bubbles seem to offer a flexible bilateral solution but in practice, they have proven to be temporary while their long-term benefits are yet to be seen. The largest Trans-Pacific market is the U.S.-Japan segment, which accounts for about 25% of scheduled passenger capacity. It has seen an important recovery since the end of 2020, however, its belly capacity figures are still 50% below 2019 levels. United Airlines is still the largest provider of cargo capacity in this lane. In 2022, UA is expected to carry 18% of the total belly capacity, up from 14% in 2019. Other carriers such as Air Canada, JAL, ANA, Delta and American have grown their share while Singapore and Korean Air have remained flat. Most of the Chinese carriers have decreased their belly capacity share. United, Delta and American are seeing their Trans-Pacific belly capacity at 40% of pre-pandemic levels. This is much lower than the rates seen in the Trans-Atlantic market, with ranges between 85% and 90%. The aircraft choice over the Pacific is not extensive: The 777-300 and the 777-200 add up to 44% of the belly capacity in this market. The 787-9 and the A350-900 have increased their share in the last couple of years. The grounding of larger aircraft types such as the A380 and the 747-8 has led to greater use of smaller aircraft which have not contributed to an improvement in belly capacity. The global aviation recovery keeps showing significant regional variation, but the Asia-Pacific region still shows the weakest recovery performance because of the slow domestic and stagnant international traffic levels.

Cookie	Duration	Description
34f6831605	session	General purpose platform session cookie, used by sites written in JSP. Usually used to maintain an anonymous user session by the server.
a64cedc0bf	session	General purpose platform session cookie, used by sites written in JSP. Usually used to maintain an anonymous user session by the server.
ARRAffinity	session	ARRAffinity cookie is set by Azure app service, and allows the service to choose the right instance established by a user to deliver subsequent requests made by that user.
ARRAffinitySameSite	session	This cookie is set by Windows Azure cloud, and is used for load balancing to make sure the visitor page requests are routed to the same server in any browsing session.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertisement	1 year	Set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin, this cookie is used to record the user consent for the cookies in the "Advertisement" category .
cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics	11 months	This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional	11 months	The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary	11 months	This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-others	11 months	This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance	11 months	This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".
crmcsr	session	General purpose platform session cookie, used by sites written in JSP. Usually used to maintain an anonymous user session by the server.
JSESSIONID	session	The JSESSIONID cookie is used by New Relic to store a session identifier so that New Relic can monitor session counts for an application.
PHPSESSID	session	This cookie is native to PHP applications. The cookie is used to store and identify a users' unique session ID for the purpose of managing user session on the website. The cookie is a session cookies and is deleted when all the browser windows are closed.
viewed_cookie_policy	11 months	The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.

Cookie	Duration	Description
_zcsr_tmp	session	Zoho sets this cookie for the login function on the website.
e188bc05fe	session	This cookie is set in relation to Zoho Campaigns
iamcsr	session	Zoho (Customer Support) sets this cookie and is used for tracking visitors (for performance purposes)
WFESessionId	session	This cookie is necessary to enable a Power BI session, a Microsoft tool that helps visualize data.

Cookie	Duration	Description
_ga	2 years	The _ga cookie, installed by Google Analytics, calculates visitor, session and campaign data and also keeps track of site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookie stores information anonymously and assigns a randomly generated number to recognize unique visitors.
_gid	1 day	Installed by Google Analytics, _gid cookie stores information on how visitors use a website, while also creating an analytics report of the website's performance. Some of the data that are collected include the number of visitors, their source, and the pages they visit anonymously.

Trans-Pacific belly capacity recovery is underway but far from pre-pandemic levels

You need a subscription to access this premium content!

$5,499/year

With a Cargo Facts Consulting INSIGHTS subscription, you'll receive:

7+

8+

Weekly

The industry essentials you need to position yourself for success in an unpredictable market!

CAAC’s ban on Passenger-freighters and the impacts on Chinese air cargo rates

Will aircraft find homes amid a growing backlog of 737-800 conversions?

Related Posts

The diverse landscape of cargo operating systems: trends and outlook

Air cargo in Panama: Navigating trade, commerce

The future of air cargo is AI-powered

MIA: Cargo paradise

Will aircraft find homes amid a growing backlog of 737-800 conversions?

Privacy Terms

Terms & Conditions

ADA Compliance

Welcome Back!

Retrieve your password