Feeder freighters: Lots of activity, but is there growth?

Two bulk ATR 72-500Fs entered service with Silver Airways on Nov. 9 on behalf of Amazon, just two days after the first flight of Air Inuit's DH8-Q300 large cargo door (LCD) aircraft; with multiple feeder aircraft in the news, we thought that it may be time to take a moment and review the current feeder landscape. In our 2021 Freighter Forecast , released earlier this year, we counted approximately 250 feeder aircraft in operation — this includes aircraft in the Saab 340 through to the CRJ-200 size range, but not smaller aircraft such as Cessna Caravans, Metros, Beech 1900s and EMB 120s, among others . This fleet contains a mix of older technology models nearing retirement and newer, modern aircraft, including the ATR72-600F production freighter . With Amazon's foray into ATR operations, we are expecting a shake-up in this market, and by 2030, we expect the fleet size to increase to approximately 450 units. Feeder Freighter Programs Cessna 208B Caravan The 208B Super Cargomaster is an aircraft that, due to its size, is sometimes forgotten, and indeed we do not include the aircraft in our feeder freighter forecast. But it has a large impact on the feeder networks around the globe . FedEx originally purchased 260 of this variant and, as of Aug. 31, still had 235 aircraft in service. As noted in our later analysis, the 208B accounts for a large portion of domestic freight within the U.S. Cessna 408 Skycourier The Cessna 408 Skycourier is another aircraft that we do not regularly report on, as it is outside the parameters of our freighter forecast. In May 2020, the first prototype took to the air from Beech Factory Airport (BEC) in Kansas. With FedEx ordering fifty aircraft, and an option for fifty more, it is unclear at this point what impact they will have on existing feeders. This aircraft will slot nicely into FedEx's network on routes too large for a Cessna Caravan but that would not justify ATR service. According to FedEx's 2022 Stat Book, nine 408 Skycouriers will enter service in 2022. ATR 42-300F Ch-Aviation reports thirty-five aircraft, with fifteen operated by Mountain Air Cargo and Empire Airlines on behalf of FedEx. With an average age of thirty-one years for active aircraft, we see the ATR 42-300F nearing the end of its operating life. ATR 72-200F/-500F Ch-Aviation reports fifty-four active ATR72-200Fs, with twenty-three flown by various operators on behalf of FedEx. They are slightly younger than the ATR42-300Fs with an average age of twenty-nine years. It is also reported that there are twenty-fix of the younger ATR-500Fs active. Swiftair is operating six of these aircraft, but the most notable aircraft are the two new entrants operated by Silver Airways on behalf of Amazon. ATR 72-600F production freighter ATR 72-600Fs are being staged to reshape the U.S. domestic feeder fleet. In 2017, FedEx placed an order for thirty airframes with options for an additional twenty. To the surprise of some, the first aircraft delivered to FedEx (EI-GUL) entered service with ASL Airlines Ireland in early 2021. EI-GUL appeared to have been parked from Sept. 10 to Nov. 10, but has since resumed regular flying. It may be a coincidence, but it also raises the question of why the three other aircraft delivered to FedEx earlier this year are still parked at Spokane International Aiport (GEG) awaiting service entry. Of the additional twenty-six yet-to-be-delivered aircraft, our understanding is that four will land with ASL Airlines Ireland and the other twenty-three have yet to be determined. FedEx is expecting an additional eight aircraft in 2022, but according to our calculations that number includes the airframe (C/N 1686) delivered to FedEx in September. CRJ100/CRJ200 Eighteen aircraft are currently in service (2 -100Fs and 16 -200Fs), with nine of these aircraft operating as package freighters with the standard cargo door while the remaining nine aircraft have been upgraded to a large cargo door. Although dictated by the operator, we have noticed a trend that these aircraft predominately operate on routes that support the U.S. auto manufacturing industry. ATP Eleven aircraft operating between Deraya Air Taxi and West Atlantic Sweden, with an average age of thirty-one years, the ATP is another freighter that we speculate is destined for replacement. DHC8 freighters As mentioned previously, the first Q300 freighter with a large cargo door installed took to the skies Nov. 5, completing a test flight above Montreal-Trudeau Airport (YUL). This aircraft is one of four DHC6-Q300s operated by Air Inuit in freighter configuration. With the new STC for a large cargo door, we expect the Q300F to gain additional traction. Another aircraft that we see as a competitor to the ATR 72 is the DH6-Q400. To date, only five aircraft have been converted into a freighter configuration, all of these being operated as package freighters by Bluebird Aviation in Kenya. Sadly, in 2020 one of these aircraft was written off and it appears that the other four have been parked since. We have long suggested that there may be a viable market for a Q400F with a large cargo door, whether this would be through conversion or a production freighter similar to the -600F is to be determined. DHC8 Simplified Package Freighters To meet the air cargo demands of the Covid-19 pandemic, in April 2020 De Havilland Aircraft of Canada Limited announced the Transport Canada approval of its Dash 8-400 simplified package freighter conversion kit. This was followed up by the approval of their Dash 8-100/200 and Dash 8-300 simplified package freighter in May 2020. Jazz Aviation agreed to purchase thirteen conversion kits and was the launch customer for this product. As of publication, we are showing eleven still in service: nine -400s and two -100s. The future: DHL Express has become the launch customer for the cargo version of the Alice electric aircraft by Seattle-based Eviation, with an order for twelve units. DHL, which expects to take delivery of the aircraft in 2024, told Cargo Facts that it plans to build several Alice feeder networks, initially starting in the U.S., most likely in California. I n early April, UPS announced that it is purchasing ten Alia-250C electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft made by Vermont-based Beta Technologies. With a payload of 1,400 lbs, UPS aims to replace “small feeder aircraft” in the 500 to 3000 lbs. range. Being that these drones are able to take off and land vertically, they are able to land directly at UPS facilities and will help work toward UPS’ goal of reducing total emissions. CargoFacts is not aware of any order commitments for electric aircraft by FedEx. Feeder Aircraft Usage Most feeder freighters are used in express networks in the U.S. and Europe, with smaller numbers of aircraft in Latin America and Africa. The interactive dashboard below provides some insight into how the FedEx feeder network has evolved over time. UPS also has a smaller feeder network but is operated by Part 135 carriers with smaller aircraft, like Ameriflight, and not required to file detailed data with the Department of Transportation (DOT). The dashboard has two panels: one showing the departures and block hours overtime and the other that plots the actual feeder routes.

Overall block hours for small feeders, mainly 208s, and turboprops, mainly ATRs, have been constant or even slightly declining during the last ten years. Medium widebody flying, on the other hand, has increased substantially. See the difference by clicking on the MWB, or medium widebody, button in the above dashboard. Meanwhile, in Europe, the other important major feeder aircraft market, the number of aircraft departures prior to 2019 has been constant or declining slightly for a number of years, although there are differences by locations and aircraft types. The overall trend has been negative; ATR72 movements increased from 2010-2019, with a slight decrease in 2020. This seems logical as we have seen operators replace older aircraft with relatively newer ATR72s. In the dashboard below you can explore developments by airports and aircraft types or combinations thereof. Use Ctrl + left and mouse click to highlight multiple elements.

The market for feeder aircraft has long been a slow-growth business driven by the decision of a few key operators. Turboprop cargo aircraft entering operations, predominately through conversions, are generally replacing aging aircraft. The combination of these factors is likely the main driver behind the trend of OEMs shying away from offering new production freighters. As we saw with the ATR72-600F and the Cessna SkyCourier, both aircraft stalled after each received one large order from FedEx.

Our Freighter Forecast has long projected fairly significant market growth that is yet to trickle into the feeder aircraft space. Could Amazon's foray into the turboprop market be the boost it has long been searching for? As we have seen from their operations, Amazon does not do anything slowly. It will be interesting to monitor this market in the coming years to see what their impact truly is. If Amazon is poised to increase demand for aircraft of this size, will we see new entrants into the conversion market? Or, maybe they are the carrot that leads to an OEM freighter from DeHavilland?

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Feeder freighters: Lots of activity, but is there growth?

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Conversion capacity remains tight but new lines are on the horizon

Expect slower international express market growth after 2021

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