Airfreight review and outlook: The year so far

With the short-term high from COVID-related commodities waning, U.S. and European airfreight imports are showing their true colors. The United States is outperforming Europe, and we expect this to continue now that stricter lockdowns are being rolled out across the continent. The year so far For the first nine months of 2020, U.S. air import tonnes are down 4%, or 10% net of COVID-related import volumes, and export tonnage is down 16%. September 2020 volumes are almost at 2019 levels, while exports are down 11%. Performance has been mixed on a product level, with imports of computers and accessories and semiconductors doing well while most other items are not, particularly on a macro level. September 2020, however, is the first time this year we have witnessed year-on-year growth in automotive-related imports and exports. On the export side, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and related equipment are in positive year-to-date territory. Exports of beauty products have also experienced two consecutive months of growth in tonnage. Meanwhile, European air trade performance continues to disappoint. Year-to-date September airfreight imports are down 9% before and 15% net of COVID-related commodities. COVID-related commodities include PPE, diagnostic equipment, test kits and other medical items. Export tonnage is down 20%, and September volumes have not shown much improvement compared to previous months, with export tonnage down 25% and import tonnage down more than 10%. On a product level, most import groups are down, although with regard to imports of computers and accessories and medical equipment, year-to-date tonnes are up. Imports of mobile phones and electronics have also been doing well in the past months. On the export side, only the pharmaceutical sector is in positive year-to-date territory. However, as in the U.S. , automotive exports and imports seem to be turning a corner, but this is coming after the industry had already hit rock bottom in 2019. Meanwhile, Japanese airfreight exports for September were in positive territory for the first time since February. For the first nine months of the year, airfreight exports were down 6% and imports were down 9%. Exports of pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and equipment, and computers and toys have been doing well this year, and the picture is similar on the import side. In tonnage terms, the Japan Forwarders Association reports September import and export tonnes were down 24% and 11%, respectively. The latter is a substantial improvement over the declines viewed in every other month this year. Preliminary customs data for October also show a continued improvement of the trade situation. Overall exports, including air and sea, are down 0.2% for October and imports are down 13.3%. For exports, shipments of medical products are up 16.8%, computer products are up 13.3% and semiconductors grew by almost 14%. Even motor vehicle exports are up by 3.8%, although trucks and buses are down 7.7%. On the import side, fish meat and vegetable imports are all down 6% to 9%. Semiconductor imports are up 20%, as are imports of cars. While we expect overall cargo volumes to be down by between 15% and 17% worldwide, these declines will not be evenly spread among airports. Airports with a large freighter share of overall volumes have even seen volumes increase, while traditional passenger hubs with abundant belly capacity have seen large declines. Declines have been larger in Africa and Latin America as all-cargo carriers have consolidated capacity on the main east-west lanes, ie. the Asia to Europe, the trans-Pacific and the trans-Atlantic lanes. The interactive map below shows an overview of airport tonnage growth for the first seven months of this year. .embed-container {position: relative; padding-bottom: 80%; height: 0; max-width: 100%;} .embed-container iframe, .embed-container object, .embed-container iframe{position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%;} small{position: absolute; z-index: 40; bottom: 0; margin-bottom: -15px;} And 2021 promises to be a mixed bag in terms of opportunities. Stay tuned for our next analysis, which will focus on indicators that tell us what to expect in the coming three to 12 months.

Airfreight review and outlook: The year so far

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Airfreight review and outlook: The year so far

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Express growth surges in Latin America

Will signs of air trade recovery last?

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Estimating the US inbound cross-border e-commerce market size

E-Commerce traffic boosts US domestic air express outlook through 2026

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